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Yesterday was a positive open for the US equity market, but all of those gains melted throughout the trading day and the day was capped with a sharp drop into the close. Today, futures are once again indicating a higher open. In fact, just before the release of weekly claims, futures were right at their highs of the session. After a higher than expected print of 3.169 million relative to expectations of 3.0 million, though, we’ve given up some of those gains, but we’re still firmly in positive territory. Looking on the bright side, at least claims have dropped for five straight weeks now. We’ll see what happens at 4 PM.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, Chinese export data, and the latest stats and trends on the COVID outbreak.
In yesterday’s email, we took a look at breadth in the S&P 500, but we all know that the Nasdaq has been the real star of the show. This morning, we wanted to provide a quick look at breadth in the Nasdaq. All we’ve heard recently is that the ‘big five’ of Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook have been driving the market, especially the Nasdaq. The reality isn’t quite the case. While it’s true that back in February, the Nasdaq’s cumulative A/D line made a lower high just as the Nasdaq peaked, ever since then, breadth has been tracking price pretty closely. Through the end of April, for example, both price and breadth were at post 3/23 highs.
While breadth has tracked price pretty closely since the March lows, in recent days there has been a modest divergence between the two. As shown in the shaded region, while the Nasdaq’s price level remains right near its recent highs, the cumulative A/D line has been weaker. At this point, the divergence is small enough that it could be erased in a matter of days, but if this May pattern persists, then it will be a more definite sign of waning participation in the bounce. Today should be a good test for the Nasdaq as we’ve seen a number of smaller stocks in the index trading higher in reaction to earnings.