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“Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment.” – Will Rogers

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

US equity futures are up 1% this morning due to more gains from semis and a headline from Axios that the US and Iran are “closing in on a one-page memo to end the war.”

Notably, while the S&P 500’s price is still looking quite overbought, underlying breadth is neutral at best.  As shown below, just over 50% of stocks in the S&P are above their 50-DMAs and 200-DMAs, and the S&P’s 10-day advance/decline line is still close to oversold territory.

So while price is extended to the upside, internals suggest that the rally still has room to run before we’d categorize it as overheated in the near term.

The semis are a different story, however.  They’re currently experiencing one of the most epic runs in history, and the group is about as overbought as it gets.

As shown below, stocks like Intel (INTC), Seagate (STX), Micron (MU), and Advanced Micro (AMD) are up anywhere from 10-33% over the last week, and they’re set to open up sharply again this morning.  When the opening bell rings, all four of these stocks will be more than 50% above their 50-DMAs.

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