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“We can draw lessons from the past, but we cannot live in it.” – Lyndon Johnson
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After major US equity indices broke what were the longest weekly losing streaks in decades, it’s back to reality again this week as futures are lower across the board. Yesterday’s announcement that Europe would ban imports of most Russian oil has crude trading up over 3% this morning leading to further concerns of potential inflationary pressures. China reported PMI figures for May overnight, and while both the Manufacturing and Services sectors remain in contraction, the magnitude of the weakness wasn’t as bad as expected.
It’s a busy day of economic data this morning as we’ll get Case Shiller Home Price Data at 9 AM along with the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and then Consumer Confidence at 10 AM (all times eastern).
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap key events in the Russia-Ukraine war (pg 4), activity in Asian and European markets (pg 4), and key economic data from Europe (pg 5).
As mentioned above, the EU embargo of Russian oil raises concerns of further inflationary pressures, which at the moment aren’t showing any signs of getting under control. Just this morning, headline inflation in the region rose more than expected rising to a record high of 8.1% y/y. That’s up from a y/y reading of negative 0.3% just 17 months ago. It’s only a 20-year history, but the fact that headline inflation in Europe has gone from close to record lows and then easily to record highs is pretty extreme.
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