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“Corrupt politicians make the other ten percent look bad.” – Henry Kissinger
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After President Trump ‘truthed’ comments last Friday morning threatening to lay 25% tariffs on iPhones imported into the US and 50% tariffs on goods imported from the EU, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq declined 1%, helping to contribute to the worst week for the S&P 500 since April. Over the weekend, President Trump dialed back on some of his threats from Friday, saying he would delay the threatened 50% tariff on EU imports from June 1st to July 9th. When futures opened for trading following the weekend break, futures rallied on the news, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are on pace to gap up 1.4% to kick off the week. If you’re following along at home, we went from no threat of a 50% tariff at the close on Thursday afternoon to the threat of a 50% tariff beginning on July 9th, and the S&P 500 is up a net of roughly 0.7% relative to where it was at the close on Thursday. With that kind of logic, you can see why the President keeps dialing up the threats and walking them back!
The S&P 500’s 2.5% decline last week continued a global trend that has been in place all year between US and international stocks. While the S&P 500 fell, every other G7 equity ETF finished the week higher, adding on to what have already been big gains for the year. As shown in the snapshot below, besides Japan, every other G7 equity ETF is up by double-digit percentages YTD, even as the S&P 500 remains fractionally in the red. SPY is also the only ETF of the ones listed that didn’t finish last week at overbought levels, although that will change at the open today.