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“The age of AI is in full throttle.” – Jensen Huang

Morning stock market summary

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The above quote from NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang wasn’t from last night’s conference call, but the keynote speech of the company’s GTC conference in 2020 – three years ago.  If AI was in full throttle back then, where is it now?

While we’ve been on recession watch for the US economy, this morning, we got news that the German economy has now moved into recession territory as Q1 GDP was revised to a decline of 0.3% following Q4’s contraction of 0.5%. Despite the recession in Europe’s largest economy, ECB policymakers are out this morning calling for more rate hikes to combat rising wages. Equity markets in Europe are lower across the board, but only fractionally.

In the US, the debt standoff continues, and Fitch weighed in this morning by placing the AAA rating of US debt on credit watch for a possible downgrade.  It’s been a busy morning for economic data, including GDP, jobless claims, Personal Consumption, and Core PCE, and they all came in higher than expected except for jobless claims which were both lower than expected.  All of these reports suggesting stronger-than-expected growth aren’t good if you’re hoping for the Fed to pause, but as of now, futures haven’t reacted much.  Dow futures are lower while Nasdaq futures are surging thanks to the surge in NVDA.

The overnight move in NVDA reminds us of the Lenin quote, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” Words really can’t describe the move in NVDA overnight.  While the company has been public for well over 20 years now, a quarter of its entire market value has come in the last 17 hours!

With the stock trading up over 27% in the pre-market, it isn’t on pace to be the best performer in reaction to earnings this season.  However, it would be just one of 18 (out of thousands of stocks that have reported) to rally 25% in reaction to its earnings report.  What is remarkable, though, is how NVDA’s market cap compares to the other stocks that have surged 25% in reaction to their earnings reports.

As shown in column four of the table below, NVDA had a market cap of $755.24 billion before reporting earnings yesterday.  Of the 17 other stocks that rallied over 25% in reaction to earnings, none has a market cap of even $10 billion, and those market caps include the impact of the 25%+ move.  At the opening today, NVDA will have a market cap of closer to a trillion! The combined market cap of the 16 other companies that rallied 25% in reaction to earnings is $27 billion, but this morning alone, NVDA’s market cap will increase by more than 9 times that.

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