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“All ballplayers should quit when it starts to feel as if all the baselines run uphill.” – Babe Ruth
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On this day in 1935, Babe Ruth hit his last home run before retiring from the game about a week later. Ruth not only hit one home run that day, but he went four for four with three bombs and six RBIs. Like Ruth’s advice in the above quote for when to quit the game, traders should take a similar approach and step back from the tape when the lines on the charts constantly go in the wrong direction. For traders biased to the long side, there’s been a lot of that this year.
Futures are lower again this morning as economic concerns weigh on sentiment and investors find little in the way of urgency to put money to work. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of easing, weekly mortgage applications showed no growth in purchase applications, and this morning’s earnings warning from Dick’s (DKS) suggests that the consumer may be catching a cold.
It’s a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar with Durable Goods (weaker than expected) and Energy Inventories the only reports on the calendar. Outside of DKS, which has already reported, the only major report on the calendar after the close is NVIDIA (NVDA). Semis had been showing some relative strength versus the market up until late last week, so this will be an important report to watch, although NVDA’s high multiple relative to the market means that investors may not be willing to give it much leeway.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap on the latest earnings warning in the retail sector from DKS (pg 4), Asian and European markets (pg 4), group performance in the Eurozone (pg 5), the latest economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 5), and a lot more.
After the first four months of the year where fixed income performed just as poorly as equities, we’ve seen a bit of a rebound in the sector in recent weeks. Below is a snapshot of some major fixed income ETFs from our Trend Analyzer. Despite YTD declines for just about all of them, the last week has seen gains across the board. The majority of the ETFs are still below their 50-DMAs, but the fact that they’ve started to ‘disconnect’ from the performance of equities illustrates how investors are starting to worry more about the health of the economy than inflation.
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