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“If I had my career over again? Maybe I’d say to myself, speed it up a little.” – Jimmy Stewart
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
There’s no economic news on the calendar this morning and earnings season is mostly (but not completely) behind us, which means there’s little news to kick off the week. Things will pick up in the days ahead as we have a ton of Fed speakers on the calendar, but that won’t start until tomorrow. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher, and futures are modestly positive as we approach the opening bell for the week.
Despite initial gains above $80 per barrel in overnight trading following news of Iranian President Raisi’s death in a weekend helicopter crash, WTI crude oil prices have fallen back below that level as we approach the opening bell. The drop comes after WTI also briefly surpassed its 200-day moving average, but then fell back down. The inability to hold these higher levels now calls into question whether WTI can hold above its uptrend from the 2023 lows.
Although the crude oil chart appears concerning, energy stocks look more attractive from a technical perspective. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) has indeed pulled back, but on Friday it found support at its 50-day moving average (DMA) and even broke the downtrend that has been in place since April 12th. Despite this month-long pullback, XLE remains the second-best performing sector ETF year-to-date, trailing only the 15.2% gain in Utilities (XLU).
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