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“Think big and don’t listen to people who tell you it can’t be done. Life’s too short to think small.” – Tim Ferriss
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Following the Nasdaq 100’s rally to a 52-week high yesterday, investors are in the buying mood once again this morning as futures are modestly higher across the board, and that follows another new high in Japanese stocks which are trading at the highest level since 1990 while Germany’s DAX is at all-time highs. There are no economic reports on the calendar this morning, so the only potential catalysts for the market this morning are various Fed speakers sprinkled throughout the morning with Powell capping things off at 11 AM when he is scheduled to participate on a panel with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
In the fixed income space this morning, Treasury yields are just modestly higher while cyclical commodities like crude oil and copper are both up over 1%. Gold is also higher but only fractionally so.
With earnings season mostly behind us, we wanted to expand on a chart we showed earlier in the month summarizing the one-day performance of mega-cap stocks in reaction to their earnings reports. In the original chart, we looked only at the seven stocks in the S&P 500 with a weighting of more than 1.5% in the index. This morning we expanded the chart to the 20 largest in the index. As shown, 65% of the stocks shown rallied in reaction to their earnings reports, and the average one-day return of the 20 stocks was 2.0% compared to an average return of just 0.37% for all stocks reporting earnings since the end of Q1.
There’s been more than a lot of discussion surrounding the outperformance of mega-cap stocks this year and whether it’s deserved or not. However, when the largest stocks in the index are reporting results that result in a market reaction that’s more than five times larger than the average of all stocks, maybe that outperformance is warranted.
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