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“If you have the right attitude, interesting problems will find you.” – Eric S. Raymond
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Markets are getting off to a slow start this week. Futures, which were modestly lower most of the morning and overnight, have turned modestly higher as we type this. Given the horrendous data coming out of China overnight and the fact that Europe lowered economic growth forecasts, that’s actually not so bad. Treasury yields are basically flat while crude oil prices are modestly lower but still trade just below $110 per barrel. The only economic report on the calendar this morning is the Empire State Manufacturing Index which will give us the first read on data for the month of May. Economists are expecting the headline index to decline from last month’s reading of 24.6 down to 15.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap the continued developments in the crypto space (pg 4), market action in Asia and Europe (pg 4), the lousy economic data out of China (pg 5), and a lot more.
After six weeks in a row of declines, will the seventh time be the charm as bulls look to eke out a week of gains for a change? In last Thursday’s reversal, the S&P 500 managed to find some support right around the highs from early Q1 2021 even as it traded to 52-week lows. At the index level, this support level works out to roughly a range of 3,800 to 3,850.
At the sector level, the only one to finish last week in positive territory was Consumer Staples, and just barely at that. On the downside, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and Technology all fell by more than 3%. Energy was also down substantially but still managed to close out the week at overbought levels. Sectors like Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, Financials, Real Estate, and Technology all finished off last week more than 8% below their 50-DMAs, so if the momentum from late Thursday and Friday can continue, these sectors have the most room to rally.
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