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We mentioned that today was probably going to be the weakest day for economic data ever, and the results have so far lived up to expectations. Retail sales dropped -16.4% on a headline basis which was weaker than expected (-12.0%) and also the weakest on record. Empire Manufacturing, however, wasn’t quite as disastrous. While economists were expecting a reading of negative 60.0, the actual reading was ‘only’ -48.5. Still on deck, we have Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Business Inventories, and Michigan Confidence. All of these will be bad too.
While the data is horrible, it shouldn’t be a surprise. When you shut down the economy, activity comes to a halt.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, Chinese economic data, the latest global and national trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
The 10-year yield is probably one of the more important charts to watch these days. Despite the market’s rally off the lows and the flood of new debt being issued, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is still stubbornly low. With a move down of 4 basis points (bps) this morning, the yield is currently sitting at 0.60, which is just six bps above its record closing low. With strong demand for the 10-year even at these low yields, investors are still exhibiting a good degree of concern.