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“It always seems impossible until it’s done.” – Nelson Mandela
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It’s been a painful three days for US equity investors, and they’re looking to catch a break today as S&P 500 futures are indicating a rally of about 1% at the open. Investors have been fooled enough times this year already by a strong tape at the open, so you can’t fault them for viewing this morning’s rally with a fair amount of skepticism.
Treasuries are also rallying this morning as the 10-year yield is back below 3%. The only economic news on the calendar this morning was the NFIB Small Business Optimism report which was unchanged from March and slightly ahead of expectations.
Over in Europe, economic sentiment came in better than expected whole Industrial Production in Italy managed to come in unchanged versus forecasts for a decline of 1.9%.
In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap the recent developments in stablecoins (pg 4), overnight earnings (pg 5), economic data out of Asia and Europe (pg 6), and a lot more.
After breaking below support to close last week, the bottom fell out of the Nasdaq 100 yesterday as the index dropped to another 52-week low and its lowest level since November 2020.
With the Nasdaq 100 at 52-week lows, we wanted to check in on its valuation and how it looks relative to the S&P 500. The chart below shows the historical premium in the Nasdaq 100’s P/E ratio relative to the S&P 500. For the last ten years, there has never been a point where the Nasdaq 100 traded at a cheaper valuation than the S&P 500, and the average premium during that span has been 23.1%.
Towards the end of 2019, right before COVID, the Nasdaq 100’s premium valuation to the S&P 500 was right in line with its historical average, but that premium exploded higher during COVID reaching as much as 50% in late 2021. Through a combination of earnings growth and rapidly falling stock prices, much of the air has come out of the Nasdaq 100’s premium relative to the S&P 500, but it still remains elevated relative to the historical average.
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