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“The most confident critics are generally those who know the least about the matter criticized.” – Ulysses S. Grant

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

There’s a positive tone to kick off the trading day this morning as equity futures are higher, yields are lower, and gold continues to rip. The only asset class seemingly not moving higher is bitcoin, but today’s weakness in the largest crypto follows what was a very positive day to kick off the trading week. The only economic report on the calendar this morning was small business optimism from the NFIB. The headline index came in weaker than expected, and labor market indicators, which we detail in today’s Morning Lineup, continue to show weakness even if there was no additional deterioration relative to February.

If it seems as though gold does nothing but trade higher these days, you’re not entirely mistaken. This morning, prices are higher once again as the commodity is on pace for its tenth up day in the last eleven trading days.  That also includes four days last week where it traded up by at least 1%.  What’s even more incredible is that heading into today, gold had traded higher on 22 of the last 30 trading days.  That’s the highest winning percentage since March 2022, and the last time the 30-day rolling total of up days exceeded 22 was back in August 2020.  Going back to the early 1980s, there have only been a handful of periods where the number of daily gains over 30 days was higher.

Gold’s rally has been part of a broader rally in the commodity space. The snapshot from our Trend Analyzer below shows where various energy and metals-related commodities closed yesterday relative to their short-term trading ranges. They’re all up at least 3%, and in most cases much more, in the last week, and most of them are more than 10% above their 50-day moving averages.  As a result, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the ETFs are all in what we define as ‘extreme’ overbought territory (at least two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages).

Below we show one-year price charts of the six ETFs listed above.  Outside of the Commodity Index Total Return ETN (DJP), which is comprised of more than just oil and metals, the five other ETFs are all trading tight at or near 52-week highs, but up until a few weeks ago, they were all somewhat range bound over the last two months. It wasn’t until early March that they really started to get rolling.

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