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“I looked for the same pitch my whole career, a breaking ball.  I never worried about the fastball.  They couldn’t throw it past me.” – Hank Aaron

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

US equity futures are sharply higher this morning, set to open up nearly 3%, after a two-week ceasefire was reached between the US and Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz and work towards a longer-term resolution.  Of course, the anti-Trump commentary suggests that it’s a disastrous outcome for the US, while the pro-Trump commentary is saying this is all part of the President’s expert negotiating skills.

Our goal is to avoid the politics and focus on market action.  Based on where futures are trading, the S&P 500 is set to move back above both its 50-DMA and 200-DMA at the open, leaving the index roughly 2.7% below its all-time closing high.

While stocks are up, front-month oil prices have crashed $20 down to the low $90s.  After trading in overbought territory for 60 straight trading days, the S&P 500 Energy sector is down nearly 5% in pre-market trading.  As shown below, the Energy sector ETF (XLE) will decidedly break its short-term uptrend when it opens this morning, but it’s still holding above its 50-DMA for now.