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Bespoke’s Quote of the Day: “I much prefer the sharpest criticism of a single intelligent man to the thoughtless approval of the masses.” – Johannes Kepler

CPI below expectations

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6,999 years ago today, the Universe was born. At least that’s according to German astronomer Johannes Kepler who came to that conclusion in the 1600s. Kepler’s work has been ‘revised’ in the centuries since, and it is now widely agreed that he was off by at least 10 billion years. What’s a few billion amongst friends, though? It just goes to show that facts that people take for granted in one environment can look foolish in another.

Futures are looking to recoup some of yesterday’s losses, but even at their best levels earlier this morning, we weren’t even on pace to recoup half of Tuesday’s losses. Let’s just call it the ‘two steps backward, one step forward market’. There’s been a ton of earnings news since the close yesterday, and the pace will only intensify over the next two days.

The only two economic reports on the economic calendar this morning are Wholesale Inventories which came in higher than expected (2.3% vs 1.5%), and at 10 AM we’ll get the latest read on Pending Home Sales which are expected to show a decline of 1.0%

In today’s Morning Lineup, we recap overnight events in Asia and Europe (pg 4), take a look at the rising levels of volatility in the Nasdaq 100 (pg 4), and then highlight the dollar’s rip higher in recent weeks (pg 5).

While equities are looking to gain today, the Nasdaq has declined 8.3% over just the last five trading days.  Relative to history, this move hasn’t been extraordinary by any means, but it still hurts.  Looking more recently at just the period since COVID first surfaced in early 2020, there have only been three other periods where the Nasdaq saw steeper declines in a five-day period.

The first two were during the COVID crash while the third occurred in September 2020 right when the Nasdaq experienced a short-term peak.  What’s interesting to note about the current period is that ever since the start of 2022, we’ve started to see the intensity of five-day sell-offs start to increase.

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