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The S&P 500 closed just 0.33% from an all-time high on Friday, and futures are mixed heading into the new trading week. S&P 500 futures are flat, Dow futures are higher, and the Nasdaq is indicated lower.
Whether the week finishes at new highs or not will likely depend on earnings as this week will be the biggest week for earnings of the earnings season, including reports from the largest companies in the S&P 500. To kick off the week, we have seen ten reports cross the wires so far, and not a single one of them missed EPS forecasts. Whether these reports translate into positive returns in each of the company’s stocks, however, is hardly a foregone conclusion the way things have been playing out lately.
The pace of reports will pick up considerably after the close with more than 30 reports, including Tesla (TSLA) and NXP Semi (NXPI).
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including the biggest overnight events, some key earnings reports, economic data from around the world, as well as the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
Maybe it’s because of the earnings reports that we typically see at this time of year, but historically the period spanning the last few days of April and the first days of May haven’t been particularly friendly for bulls. The snapshot below from our Seasonality Tool shows that over the last ten years the S&P 500’s median performance from the close on 4/26 out through the next week has been a decline of -0.09%. That ranks in just the 30th percentile relative to all other one-week periods throughout the year. Looking out over the next month, the median return has been a gain of 0.56% which, while positive, still ranks in just the 34th percentile relative to other one-month periods. While the short-term returns have been on the weak side, longer-term, the S&P 500’s median return over the upcoming three months has been a gain of 3.71% which actually ranks in the 73rd percentile.