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There was a trifecta of good news after the close last night that sent futures surging and putting the S&P 500 on pace for a gain of over 2% at the open. First, it was reported that Gilead’s (GILD) COVID-19 treatment was showing signs of success. Then, Boeing (BA) announced plans that it would resume production at its Puget Sound plant. Finally, a White House Press Conference outlined plans and criteria for bringing the economy back online. While there has never been any doubt that the US economy would come back online at some point, these three events, taken together, raised optimism (although doesn’t guarantee) that the comeback will be sooner rather than later.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the drivers of this morning’s rally in futures, some miserable data out of China, major earnings releases, and the latest trends in the COVD-19 outbreak.
In looking at major US indices and where they stand relative to their trading ranges, the one major takeaway is that it’s all about size. The only major US index that is above its 50-day moving average (DMA) is the large-cap Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). Right behind QQQ, the S&P 100 (OEF), which is made up of the 100 largest stocks in the S&P 500, is right on the verge of breaking back above its 50-DMA. Behind SPY, other large-cap ETFs are also the closest to their 50-DMA.
As you move down the table, though, it’s all about market cap. Below all the large-cap ETFs, you’ll find three mid-cap ETFs and then three more small-cap ETFs at the bottom of the list. It’s also not just with respect to trading ranges either. For both YTD and 5-day returns, it’s almost as though the tables are sorted by those columns as well. The message the market seems to be sending is that the road to recovery is going to be much easier for large-cap US corporations than their small-cap peers.
