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“There are only three ways to meet the unpaid bills of a nation. The first is taxation. The second is repudiation. The third is inflation.” – Herbert Hoover
Despite the fact that the FOMC has essentially dismissed any importance of the report, today’s release on March CPI has been one of the most anticipated CPI reports we can remember. The report came in 0.1 percentage point above expectations on both a headline and core basis, and while that’s more than expected, we’ve seen hotter prints relative to expectations. If you were looking for something that might cause the FOMC to change course, you didn’t get it in this report. On a side note, it’s a bit ironic that on the same day that CPI takes center stage, bitcoin is up about 5% in price and finally above resistance at $60K.
Futures were already lower heading into the March CPI report on the heels of news that the FDA instituted a temporary pause on the administration of JNJ’s COVID vaccine, but they have since rebounded erasing about half of their declines.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events including an overnight recap of market news and events, updates on European sentiment, CPI, as well as the latest US and international COVID trends including our vaccination trackers, and much more.
For all of April and stretching back to the end of March, when the US equity market has been open it doesn’t go down! The chart of SPY below shows that the ETF has closed higher than it opened for 12 straight trading days. In the history of the ETF stretching back more than 25 years, there has never been a longer streak of days where it closed higher than its opening price. For an analysis of how the ETF has performed following streaks of similar duration, sign up for a trial to Bespoke Premium.