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“Price is rarely the most important thing.” – Tim Cook

When our alarms went off this morning, futures were indicating a mixed to positive open, but that tone has moved firmly to the side of gains following reports of progress being made in the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks.  The Ukrainian side believes that enough progress has been made to warrant a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, while the Russian side has said that talks have become constructive.  We’ve seen positive headlines like this in the past only to get walked back in the hours following, but given the heavy losses Russian troops have sustained, there is a stronger feeling that Russia has become increasingly eager for a way out of the war.  However things ultimately play out, the market has responded with equities moving higher, and both gold and oil dropping.

Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.

Price may rarely be the most important thing, but shares of Apple (AAPL) are in the middle of an impressive winning streak with ten straight days of gains.  Since the launch of the iPod in late 2001, the current streak ranks as just the fourth time that AAPL’s stock has rallied for ten or more days, and it’s the first such streak since July 2010. Of the three prior double-digit winning streaks, the only one that lasted more than ten days was back in 2003.

The chart below shows the performance of AAPL since the start of 2002, and we have included red dots to show each prior time that AAPL was up for ten or more days.  Looking at where the prior streaks occurred relative to AAPL’s price trend, one occurred early in an uptrend, one was followed by a short-term pullback, and the other was right in the middle of an uptrend.  So, while the winning streak for AAPL is great for shareholders, it appears to say little about the future performance of AAPL’s stock.  One item we found interesting, though, is that even after the current ten-day run of gains, the current streak is the first of the four that AAPL’s trailing three-month performance was negative (-2.1%).  On the 10th straight day of gains in the prior streaks, AAPL’s trailing three-month returns were 29.3% (2003), 48.8% (2004), and 27.3% (2010).

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