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You couldn’t really ask for a more sleepy morning in the markets as futures are basically unchanged. S&P 500 futures are up less than a point, the Nasdaq is indicated to open down less than two points, and the Dow is indicated to open up by less than a point as well. Treasury yields are higher with the 10-year yield up by 4 basis points (bps) to 3.57% while the 2-year yield is up by 7 bps and back over 4%.
We could see the market wake up later on today with Wholesale Inventories at 8:30, the FHFA House Price Index at 9:00, and then finally at 10, we’ll get Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed. The Richmond Fed report will be the fifth and final of the five Fed manufacturing reports that are reported each month, and like the rest of them (which showed no growth), it is expected to come in negative, although not as bad as February’s reading.
Investors can’t seem to make up their minds as to where stocks should go from here, how the bank crisis will play out, and whether the FOMC’s next move will be a rate hike, a rate pause, or a rate cut! Think about it. How often is it that credible arguments can be made for any of those three decisions? With that uncertainty, is it any surprise that the S&P 500 is sandwiched right between its 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMA)?
Even as the S&P 500 shows the characteristics of an indecisive market, there’s more dispersion at the sector level. Of the eleven sectors, seven (shown below) closed yesterday below both their 50 and 200-DMAs.
On the upside, the only two sectors above both their 50 and 200-DMAs are Communication Services and Technology (below). That leaves just one sector – Industrials (XLI) – which, like the S&P 500, is sandwiched between those two averages.
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