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Futures started out the overnight session weak, rallied throughout the night, but have been giving up ground ever since. We have no idea where they’ll be by the time the market opens (or closes for that matter). At the recent pace, though, they won’t be positive by the time equities open for trading. We would note that if the S&P 500 does manage to finish the day higher, it would be the first back to back gains for the S&P 500 since February 12th!
Along with US equities, just about every financial asset except for volatility products and the US dollar are higher. The moves higher look pretty reasonable and restrained, and that would be a huge improvement for the function and orderliness of US financial markets even if we have not yet seen a major bottom for equities start to carve out yet. The best thing for everyone is that markets will close for the weekend shortly and give investors, central bankers, lawmakers, and most importantly, health care professionals an opportunity to assess their actions over the last few weeks to see what has worked and what hasn’t. They can also take into account new developments and alter their actions accordingly. Conditions have been very fluid, but a lot still needs to be done. The bottom line is that the status quo of an indefinite economic lockdown is unsustainable for everybody.
Read today’s Bespoke Morning Lineup for a discussion of the latest uptake in Fed liquidity programs, European markets, credit market dislocations, and coronavirus case counts.
Charts like the one of crude oil’s daily changes can be found across just about every different asset class these days. Yesterday, WTI crude oil had its largest one-day daily gain on record, rising by 23.8%. That move followed the second and third largest one-day declines for crude oil on record from 3/9/20 (-24.6%) and 3/18/20 (-24.4%), respectively. Not sure what you want to call it, but it’s far from rational market behavior.