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“Though the people support the government; the government should not support the people.”- Grover Cleveland

Morning stock market summary

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

After a slow week for stocks last week, bulls are running this morning. Overnight, Japan surged 2.7% ahead of a BoJ rate decision tonight, and China rallied 1%. European stocks are only modestly positive in early trading even as the Nasdaq is indicated to open up well over 1% and the S&P 500 is higher by about 0.7%.

It’s going to be a busy week in terms of global monetary policy, including the Fed on Wednesday. The big event for today, though, is Nvidia’s Developer conference which kicks off today with a keynote speech from CEO Jensen Huang today right after the market closes.

Although it may not necessarily seem like it, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have now both been down for two weeks in a row.  In what bulls are hoping will ultimately end up being a pause that refreshes, nearly half of all sectors have moved out of overbought territory, including Technology which was down nearly 1% last week.  The sector is still up nearly 7% on the year which puts it in the number five position in terms of year-to-date performance, trailing Energy, Communication Services, Financials, and Industrials.

We touched on this briefly last week, but it’s been a pretty good couple of weeks for commodity-related stocks, and the two leading sectors last week were Energy and Materials with gains of 3.8% and 1.6%, respectively. Both sectors are at or very near ‘extreme’ short-term overbought levels, but from a longer-term perspective, they’ve forged very different paths.  As shown in the one-year charts below, while the Materials sector (XLB) has been hitting 52-week highs on a near-daily basis for the last few weeks, the Energy sector is only now starting to test its 52-week highs from last fall.  Does the sector still have enough gas in the tank to push through?

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