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There’s very little data to speak of this morning, or for that matter, the entire week, so investors will have to focus primarily on earnings and Fed Chair Powell’s speech at noon tomorrow. Last week was the peak for earnings season in terms of the market cap of companies reporting, but in terms of quantity, it will be just as busy this week. Markets are starting off on a negative footing as US Treasury yields continue their climb following last Friday’s jobs report. After touching its 200-day moving average on Thursday at 3.29%, the 10-year yield is more than 30 bps higher this morning at 3.60%. Even after the volatility of the last year, that’s quite a big move in a short period of time. Crude oil and natural gas, meanwhile, are both trading up over 1%.
Last week’s market word of the week was dispersion. As shown in the snapshot from our Trend Analyzer, performance was all over the map with Communication Services leading the way higher with a gain of over 5% while Energy trailed falling nearly 6%. As a result of the moves, we finished off the week with two sectors at ‘extreme’ overbought levels (Communication Services and Technology) while Utilities, with its 1.4% decline, finished the week at ‘extreme’ oversold levels.
Energy and Utilities were the only two sectors down over 1% last week, and both of their price charts have been showing signs of deterioration. After stalling out at a lower high earlier this year, Energy stocks have been under pretty significant pressure as both crude oil and especially natural gas have been weak. If the declines continue this week, chart watchers will be focusing on support at the lows from late 2022 which also corresponds to highs from late in the Summer. The picture for Utilities has been even weaker. That sector is now in a well-defined downtrend and last week’s decline resulted in a potential breakdown below support.
It seems strange to say after a year like 2022 but a number of sectors have also been breaking out to six-month highs. Last week, Financials, Industrials, and Materials all managed to trade above multi-month resistance levels and trade to six-month highs.
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