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“An investor without investment objectives is like a traveler without a destination.” – Ralph Seger
There’s not a whole lot going in in the markets this morning…yet. While futures are indicated just modestly positive, there’s a bunch of economic data on the calendar starting with jobless claims (779K vs 830K, lowest since November), unit labor costs (6.8% vs 4.0%), and productivity (-4.8% vs -3.0%) all just hitting the wires. One interesting item of news out of the UK was that even as the Bank of England took a large haircut to 2021 growth forecasts (from 7.25% down to 5.0%), it said it does not plan to signal that negative rates are on the way. That being said, the Bank did instruct banks to start preparing for negative rates nonetheless. How’s that for certainty?
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, earnings reports from around the world, a discussion of recent moves in the all-important iron-ore market, moves in the euro, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
To say that the last week has been a see-saw for the market would be an understatement. Last week, the S&P 500 went from overbought levels (one standard deviation above 50-DMA) to below its 50-DMA in the span of three trading days. Just two trading days later, the S&P 500 was not only back above its 50-DMA, but it was also back at overbought levels. That may not sound like all that an extreme of a reversal, but going all the way back to the start of the S&P, there have only been 14 other periods where the S&P 500 closed below its 50-DMA after being at overbought levels within the prior three trading days and then went on to close at overbought levels within the next three trading days. Looking at the occurrences on the chart, it hasn’t been a very consistent market signal, but it does shed light on just how volatile the last several trading days have been.