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“Greatness comes from character, and character is not formed out of smart people, it’s formed out of people who suffered.” – Jensen Huang
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
After four days in a row of losses for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, including three days in a row of 1%+ losses for the Nasdaq, bulls are getting a chance to catch their breath this morning as futures are higher across the board. The breather comes just in time as markets gear up for Nvidia’s (NVDA) earnings report after the close. How the market reacts to that report could give us a good idea of the market tone as we head into spring. Besides NVDA after the close, New Home Sales is the only economic report on today’s economic calendar, and we’ll also hear from Richmond Fed President Barkin at 8:30 and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at noon.
Everything has been turned upside down in the markets over the last week. While equities and bitcoin have pulled back sharply, fixed-income ETFs – especially treasuries – have surged. As shown in the snapshots from our Trend Analyzer, the US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and every Treasury ETF with a maturity longer than a year has moved into extreme overbought territory (more than two standard deviations above their 50-day moving averages (DMA). On the equity side, the S&P 500 hasn’t quite reached oversold territory, but all the other major index ETFs along with Bitcoin have now moved at least into oversold territory. It seems like a while since we last saw a situation where fixed-income securities were moving to the right side of their ranges while equities were moving to the left.
The iShares 20+ year US Treasury ETF (TLT) had a notable move yesterday as it broke its downtrend that has been in place since the peak (trough in long-term yields) right as the Fed started cutting rates in September. It finished yesterday right below its 200-DMA, which could act as resistance going forward, but you have to start somewhere!
