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“Nothing is so exhausting as indecision, and nothing is so futile.” – Bertrand Russell
With Asia down overnight and Europe higher, the US is looking to break the tie in favor of the bulls as futures extend the rebound from Tuesday morning’s lows. As one might expect given the positive tone in equities, treasury yields are a bit higher. The economic calendar is light today as New Home Sales are the only report scheduled, but Fed Chair Powell will resume his semi-annual monetary report to Congress and a number of other FOMC officials are also scheduled to speak.
Powell is unlikely to say anything new this morning relative to yesterday, but with investors on edge regarding the direction of interest rates, uncertainty remains high as investors weigh the pros and cons of valuations, economic growth, a receding of the winter COVID wave, the potential for less accommodative monetary policy, and many other factors. With all these cross-currents, days like yesterday are likely to be more common.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, earnings reports from around the world, a discussion of fund flows from the ARKK funds, economic data out of Europe, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
Seasonal trends have been a tailwind for the market over the last several months, but the winds may be starting to shift. As shown in the snapshot from our Seasonality Tool, while the S&P 500’s historical returns from the last ten years over the following week, month, and three months are all positive, relative to all prior periods of similar duration, they rank below the 50th percentile.