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“Do you believe in miracles? YES!” – Al Michaels

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43 years ago today, the US men’s national hockey team shocked the world by defeating the dominant Soviet team in what everyone now knows as the “Miracle on Ice”. Today, faced with stubborn inflation, high-interest rates, lofty valuations, and numerous other concerns, a miracle isn’t the only way out of the current predicament for bulls, but after a sell-off like yesterday’s, it may seem that way.  Futures are actually modestly positive in early trade, but hardly in a convincing way.  The economic calendar is quiet this morning, but we’ll get the release of the Fed minutes from the previous meeting at 2 PM Eastern.

Yesterday’s plunge in stocks capped off what has been a pretty lousy five days for stocks as the early-year glow in the equity market has lost some of its shine. Every sector in the S&P 500 has traded down over the last five trading days.  The least damage has been done in the Consumer Staples and Utilities sectors which are both down less than 2%.  Leading the way to the downside, more than half of sectors are down over 3% with Energy leading the way falling over 6.5%.  Energy is also one of four sectors down YTD and is the third worst-performing sector YTD.

Sometimes, when you’re watching a game you look at the scoreboard and think, how are we not down even more?  The Energy sector has that feeling now.  As we noted yesterday, crude oil isn’t far from 52-week lows, and to call the drop in natural gas a free-fall may be an understatement.  Earlier this morning, front-month futures briefly dropped below $2 per million BTUs which is a level it hasn’t traded to very often over the last 20+ years.  Six months ago, it was close to $10!  If someone showed you the charts of oil and natural gas and gave you no other information regarding the state of the economy, the last thing on your mind would be inflation.

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