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“Would I rather be feared or loved? Umm… easy, both. I want people to be afraid of how much they love me.” — Michael Scott, The Office
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Was yesterday a blip or the beginning of something else? This morning, futures are modestly higher heading into the midweek trading session, and European stocks are firmly in positive territory. The STOXX 600 is even trading right where it was before yesterday’s January CPI report. Interest rates are giving back some of yesterday’s gains, and cryptos are blistering higher with bitcoin firmly above $50K and Ethereum trading above $2,750.
While there haven’t been any 52-week highs at the index level this week, yesterday was the 30th trading day of the year, and already the S&P 500 has managed to close at a 52-week high 12 times. That’s the most 52-week highs in the first 30 trading days of a calendar year since 2018. It’s also the tenth most of any year since 1953, the first full year of the five-trading day week in its current form. The record for 52-week highs in the first 30 trading days of the year was 20 in 1971, and back in 2013, there were as many as 15.
In today’s report, we looked at the performance of the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year following the 30th trading day of the year to see if there was any correlation between the number of 52-week highs and performance for the remainder of the year. As mentioned above, the last time there was as high of a reading was in 2018 when the S&P 500 went on to fall over 5% for the remainder of the year. So, is it a sign of a blow-off top or does strength beget strength?
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