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“Money is the MC-mansion in Sarasota that starts falling apart after 10 years. Power is the old stone building that stands for centuries.” – Frank Underwood, House of Cards

Morning stock market summary

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What a January that was!  After closing out an already bad year on a down note, the Nasdaq stormed into 2023 rallying 10.7% in January.  Never mind the fact that it’s still only 1% higher than where it was when it closed November, the strong start to the year has a lot of bulls newly emboldened, although there’s more than a small minority of investors saying they won’t get fooled again.

So how common is it to see the Nasdaq rally 10% or more in a month? Since 2000, there have been 33 prior months where the Nasdaq rallied at least 10%, and if you narrow that down to 10% monthly rallies that followed a twelve-month period where the index was down, the list gets cut in half to just 16 prior occurrences. In the table below, we list each of those prior months since 2000 along with the Nasdaq’s forward performance over the next one, three, and twelve months.  Since 2002, these 10%+ rallies after a decline in the prior twelve months have been followed by positive returns in the next year.  During the year 2001, though, there were four separate occurrences, and each one was followed by declines over the next year.  For a longer-term and more detailed look at the Nasdaq’s performance after 10+ monthly gains, check out today’s Morning Lineup.

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