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“May the best of your today’s be the worst of your tomorrow’s” – Jay-Z
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
It’s looking like a sluggish start to the first full week of trading for December as US equity futures are modestly lower, crude oil is lower, and bond yields are higher. The 10-year yield is up a little bit over 5 basis points (bps), but that’s only enough to take the yield back to 4.25%. The fact that crude oil prices are lower even as a US destroyer and several commercial ships came under fire in the Red Sea over the weekend shows just how heavy that market has become lately. In China, officials are advising people to refrain from large gatherings due to the reports of respiratory sickness around the country, so that’s something investors will be keeping an eye on going forward.
In a continuation of the stair-step rally that has been in place all year, bitcoin is adding another riser to the staircase as it rallies above $40K and to its highest level since April 2022.
On a y/y basis, bitcoin is now up over 140% which is impressive no matter how you look at it especially when you consider the fact that exactly a year ago, it was down over 70% on a y/y basis. Six months ago, in early June, the y/y change finally flipped back to positive levels and has remained that way ever since.
While a 140% y/y rally sounds extreme, from a longer-term perspective, bitcoin has seen some much more impressive y/y gains. Back in early 2021, bitcoin had rallied ten-fold over a trailing 12-month period, and in late 2017, the y/y change was over 2,000%. Granted, it was off a lower base, but it’s a massive move, nonetheless. What may sound even crazier, is that since the start of 2017, bitcoin’s average y/y change has been 180% or 40 percentage points more than the current y/y change.
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