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“Time sometimes passes quite quickly.” – Jimmy Page
With a decline into the close yesterday and modestly weaker futures this morning, US equities are limping into the close of 2021 after a strong year of gains. Maybe we would have all been better off if, like many countries in Asia and Europe, markets had decided to close today in observance of New Year’s Day tomorrow. Happy New Year!
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
It’s been a pretty incredible run for the market this year. It may not sound impressive at first, but through the end of the day Thursday the S&P 500 traded higher on just under 57% of all trading days this year. To put that in perspective, in sports betting, it’s practically unheard of for any professional to have a consistent winning percentage of even 55%. Not only has the S&P 500 traded higher on nearly 57% of all trading days this year, but last year (2020) more than 57% of all trading days were positive, and the year before that (2019) the winning percentage was just over 59.5%!
With this year’s 56%+ winning percentage, the last three years rank as just the second time since 1945 that the S&P 500 was up on more than 55% of all trading days for three straight years. The only other similar streak was from 2004 to 2006 (55.56%, 55.95%, and 55.78%), but during that streak, not one of the three years was as consistent to the upside as any of the last three years. Outside of one of the most tumultuous five weeks in history back in early 2020, for most of the last three years, the market has been on cruise control. Hopefully, it doesn’t run into any speed traps in 2022.
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