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In case you missed it last Friday while you were out holiday shopping or stuck in an airport. We also emailed out our annual Bespoke Report which covers everything you need to know about the setup for financial markets and the economy heading into 2023. You can read it here.
It’s looking like a positive day to start the week…for now. Futures are still higher but off their highs of the overnight session. It’s going to be an exceptionally quiet week for economic data and earnings. Today’s only reports are Wholesale Inventories, the FHFA House Price Index, and the Dallas Fed, and there is nothing in terms of earnings.
Bulls are hoping that today’s rally in futures marks the arrival of the Santa Claus rally where stocks advance to close out one calendar year and into the start of the next. While the last several days of trading leading into the Christmas holiday were disappointing as the S&P 500 gave up both its 200-day and 50-day moving averages, the market is basically trading right in the middle of the range it has been trading in since mid to late April. For the S&P 500 tracking ETF (SPY), the high end of that range is 430 with the low end being around 350. With a mid-point of 390, the S&P 500 is poised to open this morning just below that level at around 385. That’s the good news. The bad news is that when the S&P 500 tried to trade back above its 50-DMA last Wednesday, the rally stalled just shy of that level and that lack of momentum is a clear trait of a weak market.
Unlike SPY which can still be considered ‘rangebound’, the Nasdaq 100’s chart resembles more of a downtrend. While the lows from October are still intact, the index is still just barely 5% above its October intraday low.
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