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“To lose is to win” – Japanese Proverb
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If the above statement is true, 2022 should end up as one of the best years ever. Right? Futures are mixed this morning, but there was still some big news overnight in central bank moves as the Bank of Japan raised the upper bound of its cap on the 10-year JGB yield by 0.25 percentage points to 0.50%. While the move wasn’t entirely a surprise, the timing was. Just yesterday, in our Morning Lineup, we discussed how this type of action would likely be taken in April when Kuroda retires from the BoJ.
While equity futures have seen little impact from the BoJ news, interest rates in the US are higher across the board this morning with the 10-year yield up to 3.66%. In economic news, the only data on the calendar today is Building Permits and Housing Starts at 8:30. Building Permits missed by a mile while Housing Starts actually posted a slight beat.
The Bank of Japan’s jolt to financial markets overnight had one of the most direct impacts on the value of the yen which surged 3% relative to the dollar. Besides just the last 24 hours, it has been a very strong two months for the yen. After the dollar peaked at 150 yen two months ago today, it has experienced a sharp move lower falling more than 10% versus the yen and looking at the chart in recent weeks, there have been a number of sharp single-day moves lower.
The USD/JPY cross is now significantly below its 200-DMA after closing below that level earlier this month for the first time since early 2021 – nearly two years earlier! Going back to 1972, that streak of 462 trading days was the longest streak of closes above the 200-DMA on record and just the fourth streak that lasted more than a year.
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