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“I was now resolved to do everything in my power to defeat the system.” – Oskar Schindler
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Investors didn’t like what they heard from Powell yesterday, and after sleeping on it overnight, they like what they heard even less. Futures are sharply lower this morning, but it’s not all because of the Fed. Since the close yesterday, we’ve seen a number of other central bank rate decisions around the world, plus a big batch of bad data from China where retail sales, unemployment, industrial production, and property prices all came in weaker than expected. This morning in the US, we’ve also seen a bunch of data, and it has also generally been weaker. Retail Sales, Empire Manufacturing, and Philly Fed all came in weaker than expected, while initial jobless claims were stronger than expected, and continuing claims came in right in line with forecasts.
This morning’s negative tone in the futures is disheartening for investors as it looks like just another failed test of the 200-DMA and the downtrend line that has been in place since the start of the year. Only time will tell if that ends up being the case, but the fact that the Fed continues to push the hawkish narrative right into what is an increasingly large pile of recession signals doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
Looking at the chart of the S&P 500, one light of encouragement is the fact that while the S&P 500 completely reversed course and sold off following its two prior tests of the downtrend, in the current one, it has been hanging around right around those levels for a few weeks now. There’s a saying in technical analysis that the more support or resistance is tested, the weaker it becomes, so the fact that we’ve seen multiple tests of the current downtrend with increasing frequency in the last few weeks could be just what the market needs to get through that level. That’s the hope at least!
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