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“The best is yet to come.” – Frank Sinatra

Morning stock market summary

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Futures are in the green to start the week, but with less than 15 trading days left in 2022, any hopes for anything but a bad year in the stock market can be put to bed.  The bulls have pretty much run out of time.  This week is starting out on a quiet note with little in the way of economic or earnings-related news, but it’s a major week for global central banks, including the FOMC, and the tone of these meetings will also likely be dictated at least in part by Tuesday’s CPI report for the month of November.

We’ve never fully adhered to the idea that small caps lead the broader market.  When an entire index like that Russell 2000 is only 22% larger than the largest single company in the S&P 500 (Apple – AAPL), it’s hard to say that it leads the entire economy.  Whether they are a leading indicator or not, though, small-cap stocks are widely followed, and recent trading in the space hasn’t been particularly bullish.

Starting with the Russell 2000, the IWM ETF has been range bound now since early November, but in Friday’s decline it barely closed out the week above its 50-DMA after closing below the 200-DMA earlier in the week.

Trading in micro-cap stocks has been even weaker.  Not only did the Micro-Cap ETF (IWC) never trade above its 200-DMA in the last several weeks, but on Friday, it opened and closed below its 50-DMA as well.

Looking at all US index ETFs in our Trend Analyzer, the indices that track the largest market cap companies are generally the farthest above their 50-DMAs, and then as you go down the market cap scale, the closer they get to their respective 50-days with the micro-cap ETF (IWC), the only one actually trading below that level.

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