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We got past the employment report unscathed on Friday and heading into the new week, the economic calendar is extremely light with one exception. Thursday’s October CPI report will make or break the market for the week. Economists are expecting the headline reading to rise 0.6% m/m and 0.5% on a core basis. We’re past the peak of earnings season, but the cadence will still be busy. Outside of the economy, tomorrow’s midterm elections will likely provide a good amount of sound and fury, and from a market perspective, we can only hope that the results aren’t drawn out for days.
These are the performance numbers for the S&P 500 on the last trading day of the prior seven weeks: -1.72%, -1.51%, -2.80%, -2.37%, +2.37%, 2.46%, and 1.36%, respectively. After these moves, the S&P 500 has now ended the week with a 1% move 29 times this year. As shown in the chart below, since the NYSE moved to the five-trading day week in late 1952, 2022 already has seen the most 1% moves to end a trading week and there are still eight weeks left in the year!
The S&P 500 finished a down week on a positive note last week, but even on the week’s one positive day, the S&P 500 closed lower than it opened (as it did every other day last week). After rallying up to the 50-day moving average during the trading day, the S&P 500 pulled back from its early highs. Futures are indicating a positive open this morning, but in order for a bounce to have any staying power, that 50-day will have to be broken to the upside.
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