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“The poll that matters is the one that happens on Election Day.” – Heather Wilson
Americans were expecting a wild election night, and that’s exactly what we got. Heading into the results, it was Biden’s election to lose. As early state results came in the odds skewed heavily towards Trump, but overnight and early this morning the odds started to turn in Biden’s favor where they remain now. With all the uncertainty, you would guess that futures would be trading lower, but they’re up across the board with the Nasdaq leading the way. Republicans holding onto the Senate makes the reflation trade less attractive, and that is pushing down interest rates and pushing growth stocks higher.
In economic news, the Employment picture turned a little darker as the ADP Private Payrolls report for October missed expectations by a wide margin as the economy created just 365K jobs compared to expectations for growth of 634K.
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for a rundown of the latest stock-specific news of note, market performance in the US and Europe, some election analysis, trends related to the COVID-19 outbreak, and much more.
With the outcome of the election uncertain and legal challenges looking increasingly likely, we are immediately reminded of the uncertainty that surrounded the aftermath of the 2000 election. Most of us remember how poorly the market traded during that period, but in the chart below we show the intraday chart of the S&P 500 in the three days that followed the election. In those three days, the S&P 500 traded down more than 4.5%. What’s interesting to note is that in the opening minutes of trading the day after Election Day, the S&P 500 actually opened the day higher before sellers stampeded in.
This will be a key indicator to watch in trading today. Futures are currently firmly in positive territory this morning, and much more positive than they were in 2000 the day after that election. If those early gains can hold, a nightmare scenario of November and December 2000 will look increasingly less likely.