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“What I learned is that nothing is given easy to you.” – Christian Pulisic

Morning stock market summary

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Futures were higher earlier this morning, but those gains have been evaporating like morning dew with the sunrise.  Reports that China is on the verge of finally starting to relax some of its COVID restrictions helped to contribute to the positive tone in global markets overnight.  The catalyst for that sentiment appears to be a story that the CCP is beginning to urge older people to get vaccinated.  Reports from other sources suggest that the government will also announce that because current strains of COVID are less virulent, extreme measures to stop the spread can be relaxed.  We’ve heard a number of these rumors in recent months only to see the CCP reiterate its strict zero-Covid policy, but these stories seem to have a little bit more momentum behind them.

News of a reopening in China has commodities rallying, and WTI is back to just under $79 per barrel, although the 10-year yield is a couple of basis points lower.  The economic calendar is on the light side again today with housing price data at 9 AM Eastern and Consumer Confidence at 10.  Over in Europe, inflation data out of Spain and Germany was lower than expected.  Down south in Brazil, inflation data came in lower than expected as the y/y rate fell below 6% for the first time since 2019!

Yesterday wasn’t the type of performance that bulls were hoping for coming back from the Thanksgiving weekend holiday.  With a decline of 1.54%, it was the S&P 500’s 9th worst post-Thanksgiving Monday performance in the post-WWII period.  As disappointing of a day as it was for bulls, the Monday after Thanksgiving typically hasn’t been a very good day for the stock market.  Since 1945, the S&P 500’s median performance on the day has been a decline of 0.29% with positive returns just 39% of the time.  For comparison, on all trading days since 1945, the S&P 500’s median change has been a gain of 0.05% with positive returns 53% of the time.  As demoralizing of a day that it may have been for bulls, one silver lining to Monday’s weakness is that in the nine prior years where the S&P 500 was down 1%+ on the Monday after Thanksgiving, its median performance for the rest of the year was actually better than the median for all other years.

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