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“If you cannot get rid of the family skeleton, you may as well make it dance.” – George Bernard Shaw
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We hope everyone had an enjoyable Thanksgiving, and if you have the day off today, we hope you enjoy the long weekend. US equity markets are open but for a half session with trading for the week ending at 1 PM Eastern. Futures are mixed on the session so far with the Dow indicated higher and the Nasdaq trading lower. Shares of Apple (AAPL) are down nearly 1% in the pre-market as workers at Foxconn plants in China have been staging protests over pay and working conditions. The company has even had to offer bonuses of up to a month’s pay to employees willing to quit and board buses to go back home.
In terms of data today, there is none to speak of on either the economic or earnings front. European markets are little changed this morning but with a positive bias. Over in Europe, Q3 GDP was slightly stronger than expected, but Consumer Confidence came in weaker than expected and missed expectations for the 9th time in the last ten months.
Through the first three trading days of this week, the S&P 500 was up 1.56%. For a typically positive week, a gain of this magnitude is strong even for Thanksgiving week and ranks as the 13th best week-to-date performance through Wednesday of Thanksgiving week since 1945. As we noted in a post earlier this week, the majority of the gains from Thanksgiving week typically come on Wednesday and Friday. The S&P 500’s median performance on the Friday after Thanksgiving has been a gain of 0.24% with positive returns two-thirds of the time. In years where the S&P 500 was up over 1% on the week heading into Thanksgiving, the median gain was even stronger at 0.36% compared to a gain of just 0.15% on all other Thanksgiving Fridays. Even more notable is the consistency of positive returns. In those weeks where the S&P 500 was up 1%+ in the first three trading days of the week, the S&P 500 traded higher on Friday 87.5% of the time. On all other Thanksgiving Fridays, however, the S&P 500 was higher barely more than half of the time.
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