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“I am grateful for what I am and have. My thanksgiving is perpetual.” – Henry David Thoreau
The market isn’t in much of a good or bad mood this morning as futures are indicated modestly lower. The earnings news we did get overnight was generally positive, and there’s an avalanche of economic data jammed into today ahead of what will be a long holiday weekend for many.
This Thanksgiving isn’t going to be a typical one for most people, but there’s still a lot to be thankful for, so we hope you have a good day regardless. Happy Thanksgiving!
Be sure to check out today’s Morning Lineup for updates on the latest market news and events, economic data out of Asia, an update on the latest national and international COVID trends, and much more.
The holiday season is generally considered a great time of year for equities, but very short-term returns for the market based on seasonality haven’t been particularly strong. As shown in the snapshot from our Seasonality Tool, the S&P 500’s median historical return over the last ten years in the upcoming one-week period has been a gain of 0.24% which is right in the middle of the road compared to all other one-week periods throughout the year. One month later, median returns improve considerably to 1.99% which ranks in the 75th percentile relative to prior periods. Three month returns, however, have been very strong. The S&P 500’s median return of 6.30% in the three month period from today’s close ranks in the 98th percentile of all three-month periods throughout the year.