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“Those who are not grateful soon begin to complain of everything.” – Thomas Merton
If you were expecting a quiet day in the markets ahead of Thanksgiving, you may want to think again. While we got most of the earnings data out of the way yesterday (with some big losers), today we’ll be squeezing in three days worth of economic data including Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories, GDP, and Durable Goods at 8:30. Then, at 10 we’ll get Personal Income and Spending as well as Michigan Confidence. Don’t worry, though, there’s more! At 10:30, the DoE will release weekly oil inventory data, and then at noon, the EIA will release Natural Gas inventory data. At 1 PM, Baker Hughes will release the weekly rig count, which usually comes out on Friday. Then, to cap things off, at 2 PM, the FOMC will release the minutes from its latest meeting, and then after that ‘feast’ of data, we’ll all need a nap!
Futures are lower heading into today’s data deluge but off their overnight lows. With all the data releases, though, we’re likely to see some back and forth action with each one. Happy Thanksgiving!
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
While it hasn’t been a positive week for the Nasdaq, if you’ve been long the index this year, you have a lot to be thankful for as the index is still up over 20% YTD. While 20% is nothing to sneeze at, going back to 1972, this year would be the 17th year in 50 where the Nasdaq was up 20%+ YTD through Thanksgiving. Looking ahead, the index’s median performance from Thanksgiving through year-end was a gain of 3.05% with positive returns three-quarters of the time. That compares to a median gain of 2.44% and positive returns 67% of the time for all years since 1972. So, while the Nasdaq has historically closed out the year on a positive note, performance in years that were already strong has been even a little bit better.
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