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Whenever we get a major episode of geo-political unrest, especially when it pertains to the Middle East, there are some things you can count on in the market- equity futures trade lower while oil, gold, and treasuries rally. This morning has been no different. Equity futures are trading over half a percent lower, gold is up 1%, and after a horrendous week for crude oil, WTI is trading up over 3.5%. Turning to the bond market, with banks closed for Columbus Day, there is no official trading in the treasury market, but you can get an idea of where the market stands by looking at other areas of the market. Treasury-linked ETFs are one example. In pre-market trading today, the iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury ETF (TLT) is trading higher, but the gains are hardly convincing.
As shown in the image below from Google Finance, as we type this, TLT is trading up 10 cents this morning or 0.12%. That would only be enough to erase a fraction of Friday’s losses or basically the declines that took place in the last eight or nine minutes of trading. That’s how bad the current environment is for the US Treasury market right now. Not even a major outbreak of geo-political violence can spark a rally these days.
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