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“Blessed are the young for they shall inherit the national debt.” – Herbert Hoover
Futures are lower this morning as the S&P 500 is indicated to open down nearly 1% as the market swings back and forth between 1% daily gains and losses. One cited cause of today’s weakness is higher interest rates, but we would note that the yield on the 10-year is actually now down on the day and yesterday it was up 4 basis points (bps) and the market had no problem rallying.
In economic data today, the only report on the calendar was ADP Private Payrolls which handily topped estimated and gave a little bit of a lift to futures.
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If the declines we’re seeing in the futures do hold throughout the trading session it will not only be the fifth straight day with a 1%+ daily move, but it will also be the first time since March 2020 that SPY has alternated between 1% gains and losses for five trading days. If SPY does indeed fall 1% today, the current period will be just the second occurrence since SPY started trading in 1993. One key difference between now and March 2020, though, is that back then the daily moves were much larger and the five alternating days were also part of a 13 trading day stretch where the ETF experienced daily moves of 1%.
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