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“If a window of opportunity appears, don’t pull down the shade.” – Tom Peters
Equities are looking lower to start to the week, but the magnitude of the losses has narrowed over the last hour or so. There’s very little in the way of economic or earnings-related news to deal with today. For the week, the major economic news will be Tuesday’s ISM Services report and Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. That will give investors plenty of time to focus on negotiations in Washington over reconciliation and the debt ceiling.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
With equity futures lower, one thing you can count on is that interest rates are moving higher to start the week. As shown in the chart below, the performance of the equity market has recently been closely tied to the direction of the 10-year US Treasury yield on an inverted basis. For much of the last six months, SPY has moved step for step with the yield on the 10-year. The only period of divergence was back in August when yields first started to move higher (shown in the chart below as a falling red line). Initially, the S&P 500 kept moving higher, but by early September, the tug of interest rates began to pull the equity market lower.
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