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“You should welcome a bear market, since it puts stocks back on sale.” – Jason Zweig

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It’s a very mixed picture for equity futures this morning with the Dow indicated up pretty sharply while the Nasdaq is down by a similar magnitude driven in large part by shares of Meta Platforms (META) which is down over 20% and struggling to hang on to triple-digits.  The ECB just announced its policy decision and hiked rates by 75 bps (as expected).  Here in the US, we have a busy morning of economic data, plus big earnings reports from Amazon.com (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) after the close.

The US Dollar index peaked about a month ago, and its move lower has coincided with the bounce that we’ve seen in US equity indices.  The same trend has played out over a shorter one-week time frame as well, which you can see in the Trend Analyzer snapshot below.  Over the last five days, the US Dollar Bullish ETN has fallen 2.8% and broken below its 50-day moving average.  At the same time, every other area of financial markets has moved higher within its trading range.

Yesterday, the US Dollar Index broke below its 50-DMA for the first time since August, and it traded the farthest below its 50-DMA since early January.  As shown below, the August break did not last long, as the Dollar’s uptrend resumed almost immediately.

This morning the Dollar is back up, and a resumption of its uptrend will almost assuredly coincide with a resumption of the equity market’s downtrend.  We’ll certainly be keeping an eye on FX today.

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