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“We can guarantee cash benefits as far out and at whatever size you like, but we cannot guarantee their purchasing power.” – Alan Greenspan

US equities are on pace to kick off the week with a modestly positive open, while WTI crude oil nears $85, treasury yields rise, and bitcoin has rebounded from a weekend decline.  It’s a quiet day for economic data today, but the pace of earnings will really ramp up after the close with Facebook (FB) and continue that way for the rest of the week.

Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.

Equity futures remain subdued to kick off the week, but October has already been an extremely positive month.  Through Friday’s close, the S&P 500 was up over 5.5% this month.  Heading into the final week of October, that represents the best MTD performance for the index since 2015 (+8.08%) and just the 10th time in the post-WWII period that it has been up 5%+ heading into the final week of the month.

In the table below, we list each of the prior years where the S&P 500 was up 5%+ heading into the last week of October and show how it performed in the final week of the month.  Of the nine prior occurrences, the index was up four times and down five times for a median decline of 0.07%.  For comparison, in all other Octobers where the S&P 500 was up less than 5% heading into the last week of the month, the median performance was a gain of 0.64% with gains 62.7% of the time.

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