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After flirting with the 5% threshold for a number of days now, the 10-year yield finally traded above that level this morning but has retreated back below as we approach the opening bell. Equity futures aren’t thrilled with the move and are firmly lower in response. Besides higher interest rates, unrest in the Middle East, and some hesitancy heading into what will be a very busy week of earnings are contributing to the negative tone.
By now, we’re all familiar with the fact that the S&P 500 has had positive returns on each of the last 15 Mondays, which as shown in the chart below, is easily the longest streak since at least 1952 when the five-day trading week in its current format started. The prior record of eleven up Mondays ended in June 2005. Unfortunately for bulls, it’s looking as though that streak is set to end as S&P 500 futures are firmly lower. With today being the 25th anniversary of the release of Britney Spear’s “…Baby One More Time”, can we get the streak to 16?
As far as Mondays are concerned, the streak has been significant in terms of this year’s gains for the market. While the S&P 500 ended last week with a YTD gain of 10.02%, without Mondays, it would actually be down fractionally on the year. The “Magnificent Seven” have gotten all the credit for carrying the market this year, but “Magnificent Mondays” have been just as important.
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