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“The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself.” – Peter Thiel

Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.  

Below is a quick look at the performance of stocks so far in 2025 based on how they performed in 2024 using our decile analysis.  We broke the Russell 1,000 into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on 2024 total returns and then calculated the average YTD performance over the first three trading days of 2025 for the stocks in each decile.  Interestingly, both the best performing stocks and worst performing stocks in 2024 have done well so far in 2025, while the stocks in the middle of the performance distribution in 2024 have lagged.  As shown below, the decile of 2024’s best performing stocks are already up another 3.88% on average in 2025, while the decile of 2024’s worst performing stocks are up the second-most of any decile with an average 2025 gain of 2.7%.