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“Success is not final; failure is not fatal: It is the courage to continue that counts.” – Winston Churchill
US equity futures are trading down towards their lows of the morning after trading higher most of the night. A key concern for the market continues to be – you guessed it – the Fed, and comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting the possibility of a 50 basis points (bps) hike has some investors on edge. A read of his comments, though, shows that he only said ‘every option is in the table for every meeting’, and then went on to say that his views will follow incoming data rather than committing to some pre-set plan. With more than six weeks between now and the March meeting, there’s probably going to be a lot more headlines like this as investors look to decipher and dissect every comment from every Fed official for signs of where they’re leaning.
The economic calendar is on the light side today with Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed the only reports on the calendar. The Chicago report is forecast to show slower growth than December while the Dallas read on manufacturing activity is expected to come in right around December’s levels. Earnings data is also on the light side today, but that won’t last as the rest of the week will be one of the busiest of the earnings season.
Read today’s Morning Lineup for a recap of all the major market news and events from around the world, including the latest US and international COVID trends.
After the month we’ve had, there isn’t much positive to say about the equity market so far in 2022. One silver lining could be seasonality. The gauges below taken from today’s Morning Lineup show that the upcoming one and three-month periods for the S&P 500 are among the best one and three-month periods of the year. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500’s median performance from the close on 1/31 out through the next month has been a gain of 3.94% while the forward three-month return has been a gain of 5.68%. Those median performance numbers are good enough to rank in the 98th and 85th percentile, respectively, relative to all other one and three months periods of the year. Seasonal trends are only one part of the puzzle when it comes to market returns and they can easily be outweighed by other factors, but at least the market has the calendar working in its favor.
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