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“There is no better teacher than history in determining the future. There are billion-dollar answers in $30 history books.” – Charlie Munger
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With just two more trading days left in the month, below is a chart we published in our Chart of the Day from last Tuesday looking at rest-of-year performance when January has been a positive or negative month. Remember, since WW2, the rest of the year has generally been stronger when January has been an up month versus a down month. As shown, the S&P has averaged a decline of 0.27% across all Februarys, but the index has averaged a gain of 0.37% in February when January has been up versus a decline of 1.21% in February when January has been down. The trend is the same when looking at the rest of the first half and the rest of the year.
Drilling down further, there have only been two other instances since WW2 where the S&P gained more than 5% in January after posting a double-digit percentage decline in the prior year: 1967 and 1975. See how things turned out in those years by reading today’s full Morning Lineup.
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