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“We’re all mad here.” – Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland
Below is a snippet of commentary from today’s Morning Lineup. Start a two-week trial to Bespoke Premium to view the full report.
Stocks are poised to build on yesterday’s rally with S&P 500 futures up 0.25% while the Nasdaq gains 0.60%. Treasury yields are slightly higher as the 10-year yield sits just under 4.23% while the dollar is weaker. Crude oil is little changed at $60 per barrel, while natural gas is giving back some of the massive gains of last week with a drop of over 6%. Precious metals are also lower after their surges to start the week, and Bitcoin is slightly higher.
On the data front, we’ll get Case Shiller numbers at 9 AM, and then the Richmond Fed and Consumer Confidence at 10 AM. After those reports, all eyes will shift to tomorrow’s FOMC announcement, although there’s already widespread agreement that rates will be left unchanged, and the upcoming mega cap earnings.
Following last night’s announcement that the U.S. government proposed a much lower-than-expected payment increase of just 0.09% for Medicare Advantage plans in 2027, coupled with a tepid revenue outlook for the year ahead, shares of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and many of its peer stocks are down sharply in pre-market trading. For just UNH alone, its impact on the Dow Jones Industrials will be a decline of 350 points, so without that, the Dow would be higher.
Looking at a one-year chart of UNH shows that, based on where the stock is trading in the pre-market, it is on track to test support at the low end of its current six-month range, and a break of that level would put the lows from the summer back into play.
Going back to 1990, today’s downside gap will be the 12th time that UNH has gapped down more than 10%, and the frequency of those downside moves has really increased in pace over the last year. From late 2008 through the end of 2024, there was only one occurrence (during Covid on 3/16/20), but today’s decline will be the fifth in the last year alone!
The scatter chart below compares UNH’s daily opening gaps with its intraday performance from the open to close. The shaded area highlights each time the stock gapped down more than 10%, and following most of those opening declines, dip buyers weren’t quick to step in during the trading day, and in many cases, the stock added significantly to those opening declines.
Trivia Time. We wanted to close today with a little bit of trivia, and this one comes partially from Yahoo! Sports. If Drake Maye wins the Super Bowl this year, the University of North Carolina would be just the sixth school to produce a U.S. president and a Super Bowl-winning QB. What were the other five?
And as a bonus question, 36 different head coaches have won a Super Bowl title. What college/university has produced the most winning head coaches? Check back tomorrow for an answer, or feel free to respond with your guess. No cheating!
